Cybertruck production CapEx only at 15-20% compared to F-150, Sandy Munro estimates
Vehicle teardown and costing guru and the CEO of Munro & Associates Inc. just appeared on the Autoline After Hours show and presented his expert analysis on the Tesla Cybertruck tooling costs and estimated capital expenditure (CapEx) on yearly production.
Interestingly he compared the CapEx of the Cybertruck vs. Ford’s F-150 with respect to an annual production rate of 50,000 and 600,000 units — according to Sandy Munro, at the rate of 50k units the Cybertruck CapEx will only be $30M a year while for the F-150 that is $210M and if Tesla succeeds in producing and delivering 600k Cybertrucks a year, the CapEx for Tesla will only be $125M vs. F-50’s $615M.
Tesla Cybertruck can be produced at only 15% to 20% CapEx compared to a Ford F-150, this gives the Cybertruck a huge cost efficiency advantage and big potential for being profitable, the simple design and straight lines of the Cybertruck are a winner here.
In about an hour-long talk about the Cybertruck, Sandy Munro praised Tesla and Elon Musk’s genius on creating a design that not only disrupts the tradition but also brings the cost of production to the bare minimum, here’s what he said:
#Cybertruck → “I think capex for 50k a year would be ~$30M… Let's look at F-150… capex total for that is $210M… If we look at 600k a year… That only gets me up to $125M… An F-150 gives us a total capex of $615M… That's a big, big, big, big, big, huge difference!” $TSLA— Tesla New York (@TeslaNY) January 17, 2020
Munro thinks Tesla selling 600k Cybertrucks a year is possible because Ford sold around 740k F-150 and Dodge around 640k RAM pickup trucks last, this is a huge market, actually the pickup truck market in the United States is bigger than cars and it’s growing each year.
The last time Elon Musk reported a number, the Tesla Cybertruck had 250,000 reservations, initially, not the 100% of these are going to convert to actual sales but that’s what happened to Tesla Model 3 in the start and now the car has surpassed 400,000 total produced and delivered worldwide, the exact number of reservations it received within a few weeks of its first unveiling.
Talking about the exoskeleton (unibody) design, Munro even said that the welding points might not even need to be brushed afterwards, because they would hide on the molded inside of the body, another labor cost saving, thanks to the no paint needed 3mm stainless steel sheets that are also used in SpaceX rockets.
According to Paul Lester of Munro & Associates:
Looks like the pillars are nice simple geometry too and a flat floor — can’t see any crossmembers (this might be a simplified image/photoshop etc.).
Not sure why they would have a sharp-angled charge port cover (stress risers) other than to match the angled style.
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